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章玉贵教授:中美经贸摩擦趋势研判、全球经济体系担保人演变与国际金融格局前瞻

  【SHANGHAIJIADIANWANG】12YUE28RI,YI“XINSHIDAI、XINQIDAI、XINFENJIN”WEIZHUTIDE2019SHANGHAIJIADIANCHUANGXINFAZHANFENGHUILONGZHONGJUXING。CICIFENGHUIYOUSHANGHAIJIAODIANJIADIANSHANGYEXINGYEXIEHUI、SHANGHAIJIADIANWANGZHUBAN。YIXIASHISHANGHAIWAIGUOYUDAXUEGUOJIJINRONGMAOYIXUEYUANYUANZHANGZHANGYUGUIZAIFENGHUIZUODEYANJIANGZHENGLIGAO,RUYOUBUTUOZHICHUANJIABINYANJIANGWEIZHUN。 

  MEIGUOTIAOQIZHONGMEIJINGMAOMOCA,BENZHIERYAN,SHIZHONGGUOZI“RUSHI”YILAI,ZAIJINGJISHILICHENGZHANGHEQUANQIUMAOYIBANTUZHONGDEDIWEITISHENGCHAOCHULEMEIGUODEYUQIYUSHIJIKONGZHIBIANJIE,ERSHITUYI“DADANGLIANGDEMAOYIZHAN”ZHEIZHONGKANSIFEILIXINGSHIZEYUNZANGGUOJIAJINGZHENGCELVEDECHAOCHANGGUISHOUDUAN,LAIZUIDAXIANDUQIANZHIZHONGGUODEFAZHAN,JINERZHONGXIEQUANQIUMAOYIGUIZE,MAOYIZHANBENSHENJIUSHISHIXIANMEIGUOLIYIDEYIZHONGTANPANGONGJU;

  今日中国的经济规模相当于美国的60%。且从发展趋势来看,与美国之间的差距将越来越小。而在当前依然由西方工业和金融强国主导的国际经贸格局中,在2001年之前基本处于全球贸易边缘地位的中国,通过不断适应国际贸易规则、扩大贸易规模、提升产品竞争力、稳步构筑双边与多边贸易体系,一跃而成为世界出口冠军。而且出口商品的附加值也在不断提高,出口制造业在产业链的位置逐渐上升。上述这些成就,显然是中国的主要贸易伙伴尤其是美国难以适应的。美国对中国在金融领域的发展也开始高度警觉,包括人民币国际化与上海国际金融中心建设等,都很警觉。美国有人认为,中国的发展已经大大超出了美国的预期。例如,布热津斯基在世时曾担心,美国会否在某一天失去超级大国地位。而金融直觉高度敏感的白宫前“经济大脑”萨默斯则不时警告,如果美国一再犯错,其作为全球体系担保人的角色难免不保。说不定将来有一天,全球财富的配置与资产定价中心也会转移到中国,况且中国正在积极参与重构区域乃至全球贸易规则,这当然是美国不能容忍的。

  中国已是美国的高价值战略目标,从战略上围堵中国日趋强大的高端制造业体系,逼迫中国二次“入世”,并将中国的发展态势控制在美国主导的既有秩序框架内,是美国的战略目标。

超级大满贯  MEIGUOJINTIANYIRANDUYOUYIXIANGTESHUYOUSHI,JIMIBUQUANQIUDEHAISHANGLILIANGTOUSONGYUDAJITIXI、ROUXINGSHANGYEGANYUHEWUXINGDEJINRONGKONGZHITIXI。HUANYANZHI,MEIGUOZI1944NIANYILAISUOBANYANDEQUANQIUJINGJITIXIZUIHOUDANBAORENJIAOSE,SUOYIZHANGDEZHUYAOYOULIANGGELILIANGGONGJU:WULIHEJINRONG。QIANZHEYUNHANDESHIDUIGAOKEJILINGXIANYOUSHIDEZHANGQIBACHI,HOUZHEZESHIQIANGDAZHIZAOYE、QUANQIUMAOYIGAOBIANJIANGHEJINRONGDINGJIAQUANDEYOUXIAOZHENGHE。YINCI,XIANDAIJINRONGJUEBUJINJINBIAOXIANWEIYINXING、ZHENGQUAN、ZHAIQUANHEHUOBIDETIXIHUACUNZAI,ERSHIDUIYIGUOKEJI、CHANCHU、CHUANGYIYIJIGUOJIXIEDIAOLIYULINGDAOLIDEQUANMIANCUIQU。ERZIBULEIDUNSENLINTIXIYILAI,WULUNSHIRIBENHAISHIOUZHOU,DOUYOUYUZAISHANGSHUZONGHEJINGZHENGLINGYUCUNZAIMOUXIERUANLEI,JIASHANGDIYUANZHENGZHIDEYUESHU,ZUIZHONGWUFAQUDAIMEIGUOCHENGZHANGWEIQUANQIUJINGJITIXIDEDANBAOREN。

  ZAIQUANQIUQIJINWEIZHIDEJINGJIFAZHANSHISHANG,ZHIYOUMEIGUOHEZHONGGUOJIANGJINGJIGUIMOZUODAO10WANYIMEIYUANYISHANG。ZHONGGUOYISHIQUANQIUSHOUQUYIZHIDEWAICHUDAGUOYUMAOYIDAGUO。ERCONGGUOJIJINGJIZHIXUBIANQIANSHILAIKAN,ZHONGGUOZAICHUBUWANCHENGGONGYEHUAHECHUBUJIANCHENGXIANGDUIWANSHANDEJINRONGFUWUTIXIHOU,QIZAIGUOJIJINGJIZHIXUGAIGEZHONGDESUQIUJIUBUJINJINSHIYIZHONGBEIDONGSHIYING,ERSHIJIYUYIYOUDEJINGJILILIANG,JIJIXUNQIUCANYUGUOJIJINGJIHUAYUTIXIJIANSHESHENZHIZHONGJIANHUAYUTIXI,BAOKUOXIANGSHIJIETIGONGGONGGONGCHANPIN。ZHEIDUIMEIGUOERYANSHIJUDATIAOZHAN。

超级大满贯  MEIGUOYOUXIEZHIYEZHENGZHIJIA,YIJINGBAJIBAIZHONGGUOSHIWEIBISHENGSHIMING。WEILEDADAOZHEIGEMUBIAO,TAMENKEWEIZHIZHENGCHAOXI;NAPAWUFASHIXIANZHEIGEMUBIAO,ZHISHAOYEYAODALUANWOFANGDEJIEZOU。

  不要指望明天就会休战,这个周期会很长。中美经贸摩擦是中美战略利益冲突的直观表现,未来贸易摩擦的变种会更多。包括金融、技术、民族、宗教、文化、台湾、香港乃至军事领域等等。美国迄今为止还有很多工具没有拿出来。我们要审慎看待后续变化,冷静观察,沉着应对。

  DANGJINSHIJIE,MEIYOURENHEYIZHONGDANBIANNAIZHIDUOBIANLILIANGKEYIQINGYIQIEGEZHONGGUODEHEXINJIAZHILIAN。ZHONGMEIWEIRAOMAOYIZHANBIJIANGZHANKAIDUOLUNBOYI,WEICI,WOMENBIXUCHAOYUEYIWANGDEGUANXINGSIWEI,ZHANGWOYUBUQUEDINGDEJINGZHENGDUISHOUDAJIAODAODELUOJI,YIDUIDENGHUOBUDUICHENGDEBAOFUSHOUDUANWEIBOYIHOUDUN;GENGYAOTIGAODUIMAOYIZHANDEZAOQIYUJINGNENGLI,YEYAOTANSUOGOUJIANZHONGMEIZHIJIANYOUXIAODELIYIFENXIANGJIZHI,ZHANXIANCHUGAODUDEGUOJIAZHIHUI。

超级大满贯  CONGGUOJIJINRONGGEJUBIANQIANSHILAIKAN,MEIGUOQUDAIYINGGUOYONGLEZHISHAO50NIAN,ZHONGJIANHAIJINGLILELIANGCISHIJIEDAZHAN。WOMENGUOJIAYAODADAOHEMEIGUOJINGJISHILIXIANGDANG,ZHISHAOYAODAO2035NIAN,CHABUDUOYAOJINGGUOSANGEWUNIANJIHUADEFAZHAN,QIANTISHIGUONEIBAOCHIWENDING。WOMENXIWANGDAO2049NIANJIANGUO100ZHOUNIANZHIJI,ZHONGGUOCHENGWEIQUANQIUZUIZHONGYAODEJINGJIJINRONGTIXIDEDANBAOREN。JIESHIQUANMIANWANCHENGZHONGHUAMINZUDEWEIDAFUXING。

  最后,我们坚信:时间在中国这一边。


SAOYISAO,ZUIXINZUIREJIADIANXINGYEDONGTAI,QUANWEISHUJU、ZHUANJIAGUANDIAN、XINWENREPINGJINZAIZHANGWO。WEIXINSOUSUO“SHANGHAIJIADIANWANG”/“shjiadian”JIKEGUANZHU,QIDAININDEDIANZANHUOPAIZHUAN!

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