超级大满贯

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5G手机明年料将大规模出货 芯片厂商积极“备战”

  “ZAIZHONGGUO,5GSHOUJIDEDAGUIMOCHUHUOYUJIHUIZAIMINGNIANQIDONG,BINGZHANJUZHONGGUOSHOUJISHICHANG20%DEFENE。”Strategy AnalyticsXINXINGSHEBEIJISHU(EDT)YANJIUFUWUFUZONGJIANVille-PetteriUkonahoJIESHOU21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHECAIFANGRENWEI,ZAIQUANQIUQITADIQU,5GCHANPINGENGDAGUIMODECHUHUOHUIZAI2020NIANDISIJIDU,QIBIAOZHIXINGSHIJIANHUISHIPINGGUO5GCHANPINDETUICHU。


超级大满贯  “ZAIZHONGGUO,5GSHOUJIDEDAGUIMOCHUHUOYUJIHUIZAIMINGNIANQIDONG,BINGZHANJUZHONGGUOSHOUJISHICHANG20%DEFENE。”Strategy AnalyticsXINXINGSHEBEIJISHU(EDT)YANJIUFUWUFUZONGJIANVille-Petteri UkonahoJIESHOU21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHECAIFANGRENWEI,ZAIQUANQIUQITADIQU,5GCHANPINGENGDAGUIMODECHUHUOHUIZAI2020NIANDISIJIDU,QIBIAOZHIXINGSHIJIANHUISHIPINGGUO5GCHANPINDETUICHU。

  SUIZHE5GSHANGYONGDEJINDUBEISHUCITIQIAN,WAIJIEDEGUANZHUZHONGDIANKAISHIBUFENZHUANXIANG5GCHANPINDAGUIMOCHUHUODESHIJIAN,YIJIQIJIAGEXIAJIANGDESHIJIANNAIZHIKONGJIAN。DUOJIASHOUJIXINPIANCHANGPANDUAN5GSHOUJIHUIZAI2020NIANDIYIJIDUDAGUIMOCHUHUO,YOUFENXIJIGOUSHENZHIRENWEI5GCHANPINYIJINGKAISHIZHUBUZAIBUFENSHICHANGDAGUIMOCHUHUO。LIANFAKEJIZONGJINGLICHENGUANZHOUJINRIZAICAIFANGZHONGTANYAN,YINIANQIANDAJIAHAIHUIYILV2020NIANQUANQIUJIANGHUIYOUDUOSHAOTAI5GSHEBEI,ERXIANZAIZHEIGESHUZIHUIDAYU1YIYICHENGYEJIEHEGONGYINGLIANDEGONGSHI。

  BUGUO5GSHOUJIJIAOZHI4GCHANPINZAIFUZACHENGDUSHANGYOUJIAODATISHENG,ZHEIYEDAILAICHENGBENDEZENGJIA。DAGUIMOSHANGYONGDECHUQI,“GUI”YIRANSHI5GSHOUJIMIANLINDETIAOZHAN。GUONEILAIKAN,MUQIANYIYOUDUOJIAGONGSIDUI5GSHOUJINENGFOUJIANGJIAZHI3000YUANSHENZHI2000YUANYIXIAJINXINGLETANTAO。CHENGUANZHOUYEBIAOSHI,LIANFAKEQIANGLIEXIWANG5GSHOUJIJIAGENENGZAI2020NIANXIABANNIANXIATANZHI2000YUANYIXIA,ZHENGGECHANYELIANHUINULICUCHENGGAIMUBIAO。

超级大满贯  5GDEDAOLAIYEBINGBUYIWEIZHE4GDELICHANG。XINGYEFENXIJIGOUStrategy AnalyticsXINXINGSHEBEIJISHU(EDT)YANJIUFUWUFUZONGJIANVille-Petteri UkonahoTANYAN,4GYOUZHE“ZHANGWEIXIAOYING”:QUANQIUXUDUODIQUHAIBINGWEIKAISHIXIANG5GGUODU,CIWAI,ZAIKEYUJIANDEWEILAI,ZUIBIANYIDEZHINENGSHOUJIYIRANHUISHI4GCHANPIN。CHENGUANZHOUYEBIAOSHI,LIANFAKEMUQIANZAISHOUJIYEWUSHANGDECELVEYISHIFENQINGXI:“DAHAO4GXIABANCHANG,ZHANGWO5GZHUANHUANDESHANGJI。”

  明年开启第一波

超级大满贯  “ZAIZHONGGUO,5GSHOUJIDEDAGUIMOCHUHUOYUJIHUIZAIMINGNIANQIDONG,BINGZHANJUZHONGGUOSHOUJISHICHANG20%DEFENE。”Strategy AnalyticsXINXINGSHEBEIJISHU(EDT)YANJIUFUWUFUZONGJIANVille-Petteri UkonahoJIESHOU21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHECAIFANGRENWEI,ZAIQUANQIUQITADIQU,5GCHANPINGENGDAGUIMODECHUHUOHUIZAI2020NIANDISIJIDU,QIBIAOZHIXINGSHIJIANHUISHIPINGGUO5GCHANPINDETUICHU。

  Strategy AnalyticsRENWEI,5GJIANGZAI2020NIANZHANJUQUANQIUZHINENGSHOUJISHICHANGDE10%,BINGZAI2021NIANDADAO25%。CIHOU,5GJIANG2024NIANCHENGWEIQUANQIUSHOUJISHICHANGDE“ZHULIU”,CHUHUOLIANGZHANBICHAOGUO50%,ERZAIZHONGGUO,ZHEIYIJINDUWUYIHUIGENGKUAI。

  JIBANGZIXUN(TrendForce)ZISHENYANJIUZONGJIANXIEYUSHANRENWEI,5GZAIWEIQUYUCHENGSHUDEZHINENGSHOUJISHICHANGZHURUZHEXINSHANGJI。TADUI21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHEBIAOSHI:“QUANQIUDACHANGDUI5GDEZHONGJIMUBIAORENGSHI28GHzYISHANGDEHAOMIBOPINDUAN,GELEIDA、ZHONG、XIAO、WEIXINGJIZHANJIANGLUXUBUJIAN,KEWANGZAI2023NIANHOUCHIXUZENGZHANG。”

  DUISHOUJIXINPIANCHANGSHANGLAISHUO,YONGZUIHESHIDECHANPINGANSHANG5GDIYIBODAGUIMOSHANGYONGYIXIANDEYOUWEIZHONGYAO。UkonahoRENWEI,GAOTONGYIRANSHIYIDONGLINGYUDE“XINPIANLINGXIU”,ZAI5GGUIGEDETUIJINGUOCHENGZHONGBANYANLEGUANJIANDEJIAOSE,QICHANPINYEZUODAOLEQUANQIUFANWEIZUIDAGUIMODEFUGAI;ERLIANFAKEDEYOUSHIZESHIZAIZHONGDANGZHINENGSHOUJILINGYUYIXIANGYOUZHEQIANGSHIDEBIAOXIAN,QIFANGANGENGYOULIYU5GSHOUJIJIAGEDEXIAJIANG。

超级大满贯  ZIGUANGZHANRUIZEBEIRENWEIYEWUJIANGZHUYAOZAIZHONGGUO,QIDIJIAXINPIANYOULIYUZHONGGUOSHICHANGDE5GCHANPINGENGKUAISHIXIANLIANJIAHUA。SANXINGYUHUAWEI(HAISI)ZEDOUYOUZHEZIJIDE5GXINPIANBINGYOUXIANGONGYINGZIJIACHANPIN,ZHEIYEYIWEIZHEWENGUDECHUHUOQUDAO。

超级大满贯  “LIANFAKEHEZIGUANGZHANRUIYUJIDOUJIANGZAIZHONGGUOSHICHANGQUDECHENGGONG,TAMENZUIDADETIAOZHANSHIZAIQITASHICHANGHUODEGENGGAODEJIESHOUDU,KAOLVDAORUJINDEQUANQIUMAOYIHUANJINGZHEIGENGXIANZHONGYAO。”UkonahoPINGLUNCHENG,“LIANFAKEGENGYOUXIWANGKAITUOQUANQIUSHICHANG,QICHANPINYIJINGZAIXIOUHEYAZHOUBEICAINA,ZHISHISHANGWEIZOUJINBEIMEISHICHANG。”

  “WOXIANGXINZHEICI(LIANFAKE)GANSHANGLE5GDIYIBODAGUIMOSHANGYONGDESHIJIANDIAN。”CHENGUANZHOUZAICAIFANGZHONGBIAOSHI。LIANFAKEJICAIWUZHANGGUDAWEIDUI21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,5GZAI2020NIANDEDAGUIMOSHANGYONGYIDINGHUIDUIGONGSIYINGSHOUYOUBIJIAOZHENGMIANDEBANGZHU。

  TAZHICHU,5GXINPIANDANJIAJIAO4GXINPIANYAOGUI,QIE2020NIANGUONEISHICHANGDEGUIMOJIANGZAI1YITAIYISHANG,YILIANFAKEXIWANGDADAODESHIZHANLVLAIKAN,XIANGXINHUIDUIYINGSHOUYOUBANGZHU。“XIANGXIDESHUZISHOUXIANYUSHANGSHIGONGSI(XIANGGUANYAOQIU),MINGNIANCAINENGGONGBU。”GUDAWEISHUO,“FANGXIANGSHANGYINGGAISHIZHENGMIANXIAOXI。”

  5G何时降价?

  ZAICHENGUANZHOUKANLAI,5GJISHUDAILAIDETISHENGBI4GJISHUYAOGAOWUBEISHENZHIQIBEIYISHANG,ERZHEIYEYIWEIZHEDUIJIDAICHULINENGLIDEGAOYAOQIU。“ZHEIRANGSHEJIDEFUZADUBIANDEFEICHANGGAO,BUZHISHIZAIYUNSUAN,SHENZHIZAIQIANDUANRF(SHEPIN,XIATONG)JISHU、TIANXIANJISHU,DOUHUIGEN4GWANQUANBUTONGDENGJI,JISHUNANDUQUESHIGAOCHUHENDUO。”TASHUO。

  XIEYUSHANYEZHICHU,XIANGJIAOYU4G,5GBIXUXIANGXIAJIANRONG4G/3GDENGPINDUAN,JIASHANGYAOBAOZHANGSHIYONGZHETIYAN,5GSHOUJIDEJISHUHANLIANGSHIBITISHENG,TONGSHIYEXUYAOYINRUXIANJINZHICHENGLAITISHENGZHENGTIDEYUNZUOXIAONENG,ZHEIYEYIWEIZHECHENGBENTISHENGSHIBIRANJIEGUO。YISub-6GHzDE5GSHOUJIWEILI,JINZAISHEPINQIANDUANDECHENGBENSHANG,XIANGJIAOYU4GSHOUJIDETISHENGJIUYOU20%ZHI30%。

  SHOUZHIYUDUOFANGMIANDECHENGBENYINSU,ZAI5GDAGUIMOSHANGYONGDECHUQI,“GUI”WUYIHUISHIXIAOFEIZHEXUANZE5GSHOUJIDEZHONGYAOZULIZHIYI。CIWAIXIEYUSHANHAIZHICHU,5GZAISHOUJISHANGSHANGWEIYOU“SHASHOUJI”YINGYONGCHUXIAN,MUQIANDEDUOSHUYINGYONGYI4GWANGLUOYEKEYISHIXIAN,SHENGJIZHI5GBINGBUHUIDAILAIMINGXIANDEXIAOYI,YINCILIYONGJIAGEYOUHUILAIXIYINXIAOFEIZHEMAIDANDEZUOFAYEKENENGYOUXIAN。

  “SUIZHEGAOTONG、LIANFAKEDENGLUXUTUICHU5G SoC(SHOUJIYINGYONGCHULIQIYUJIDAILIANGZHEZUODAOYIQIFENGZHUANGDEXINGSHI,XIATONG),JIANGYOUJIHUILADI5GSHOUJIDELINGJIANCHENGBEN,DANXIAOGUOYOUXIAN,ZHONGDIANHAISHIZAIYUDIANXINYEZHESHIFOUYUANYITIGONGYIDINGBILIDEBUTIE,JIASU5GSHOUJIDECAIYONG。”TABIAOSHI,“JIAODAFUDUDEJIANGJIADAGAILVHUIZAI2022DAO2023NIANCHUXIAN。”

超级大满贯  UkonahoZERENWEI,ZHONGGUOHUISHIYINLING5GCHANPINZOURUDIJIAQUJIANDEGUANJIANSHICHANG,YOUQISHISUIZHELIANFAKEHEZIGUANGZHANRUIFANGANDETUIJIN,5GSHOUJIJIAGEKENENGHUIZAIWEILAIXUNSUXIAJIANG。BUGUO,TATONGYANGBURENWEI5GSHOUJINENGGOUZAI2020NIANDAGUIMOJINRUZHONGDENGJIAWEI。ZAITAKANLAI,5GCHANPINJIAODAGUIMOJINRUZHONGDENGJIAWEIHETUPOZHIDIJIAWEIDESHIJIANJIANGFENBIEWEI2021HE2022NIAN。

超级大满贯  JINGUAN“QIANGLIEXIWANG”GUONEISHICHANGSHANG5GSHOUJIJIAGEKEYIZAIMINGNIANXIABANNIANXIATANZHI2000YUANZHIXIA,LIANFAKEYEBURENWEIQIKEYIJINYIBUKUAISUXIATANZHIQIANYUANSHUIPING,ERZHEIYESHIYINWEI5GSHOUJIDEFUZADUYUANCHAO4G。“XIANBUSHUOSoCDEBUFEN,RFDECHENGBENZENGJIADOUSHIYOUDE,ZHEIHUIRANG5GSHOUJIPUJIDAO4GSHOUJIDE1000YUANYIXIAJIAWEISUOXUDESHIJIANLAZHANGYIDIAN。”CHENGUANZHOUBIAOSHI。

超级大满贯  DAHAO4G“XIABANCHANG”

  5GDEDAOLAIYEBINGBUYIWEIZHE4GDETUICHANG。“4GBINGMEIYOUZAIXIAOSHI,XUDUODIQUHAIMEIYOUKAISHIXIANG5GGUODU。”UkonahoBIAOSHI。TAYUJI,WEILAISHUNIAN,4GSHOUJIJIANGJIXUZAIFEIZHOU、YINDU、LADINGMEIZHOUDENGDIQUXIAOSHOU;CIWAI,ZAIKEYUJIANDEWEILAI,ZUIBIANYI、KEFUDANDEZHINENGSHOUJIYIRANHUISHI4GCHANPIN。ZHEIXIEYINSUYITONGCUCHENGLE4GDE“ZHANGWEIXIAOYING”。

  CHENGUANZHOUTONGYANGRENKEZHEIYI“ZHANGWEIXIAOYING”。TAZAICAIFANGZHONGZHICHU,MUQIANQUANQIUYINIANYUEYOU16YITAISHOUJICHUHUO,GEGEGUOJIAXIANG5GZHUANHUANDEJINDUBUYI,4GDESHIYONGLIAOJIANGHUIYANXUZHI2025NIANSHENZHIGENGWAN。

超级大满贯  GUDAWEIYEBUCHONGBIAOSHI,TONGXUNDEGAIBIANBUJIANDESHIYAO“YIDAOQIE”。“SUIRANDAJIATAN4G、5G,DANMUQIAN2GXINPIANHAISHIYIMEINIANJIYIDELIANGZAICHUHUO。”TASHUO,“4GYINGGAIBUZHIYUTINGZHISHENGCHAN,WOMENHUICHIXUTOUZI,ZHISHIDABUFENDEZIYUANHUIWANG5GQINGXIE。”TANJISHIFOUHUIJIXUFABUXINDE4GXINPIAN,GUDAWEIBIAOSHI:“WOMENYIDINGHUICHIXUYOUXINDE4GXINPIANCHULAI。”

  LINGYIFANGMIANDETIXIANZESHIZAIGONGNENGJILINGYU。CHENGUANZHOUZAICAIFANGZHONGZHICHU,SHOUJISHICHANGWEILAIDEFANGXIANGHUISHIXIANYOUDEGAODUANJIBEI5GCHANPINQUDAI,PIANZHONGDUAN、DIDUANCHANPINZEHUISHI4G。ZHEIQIZHONGYEBAOHANZHEDIDUANDE“GONGNENGJI”。

  “ZAIWOKANLAI,BUSHISUOWEIGONGNENGJIHEZHINENGJI,TABEIHOUDEZHONGDIANSHIKEYIZUODAODUOBIANYI。”CHENGUANZHOUQIANGDIAO,SHOUJIDEZHINENGHUASHIYIGEQUSHI,JIBIANSHIBEICHENGZUO‘GONGNENGJI’DEJIXING,SHIJISHANGYEHUIXUYAOJUBEIZHINENGDENENGLI。“ZHEIGEMINGTIDUILIANFAKELAISHUOHENJIANDAN,JIUSHIRUHEZAIZHINENGHUAQUSHIXIA,BADONGXIZUODAOBIANYI,ERQIEKEYIMANZUMOUXIEDIQUDEXUQIU。”TASHUO。

超级大满贯  XIEYUSHANYEZAICAIFANGZHONGZHICHU,WEILAIYIDUANSHIJIAN4GSHOUJIRENGWEIZHULIU,ERCHUANTONGGONGNENGJIHUIZHUJIANBEIDIJIEZHINENGXINGSHOUJIQUDAI。TARENWEI,4GSHOUJIDEZHANGWEIXIAOYINGYUJIKEYANXUZHI2021-2022NIAN。

超级大满贯  GAOTONGGONGSICENGJINGZAI2017NIANTUICHULE4GGONGNENGJIXINPIAN,YIZAIWAJUEDANGSHIXUQIUYIRANWANGSHENGDEGONGNENGJISHICHANGDEQIANLI,ERZUOWEISHOUJIXINPIANLINGYULINGYIZHONGYAOCHANGSHANGDELIANFAKEZAIDANGSHIBINGWEIXUANZEGENJIN。TANJIDANGCHUDEJUEDING,GUDAWEIBIAOSHI,ZHEIGENGDUOSHICHUYUZHANLVEZIYUANDEKAOLIANG。

超级大满贯  TAJIESHAOCHENG,LIANFAKEZAIGUOQUJINIANDUINEIBUSHOUJIZIYUANZUOLEJIAODADESHULI,BINGJIANGDABUFENZIYUANDIAOZHI5GDENGLINGYU。“SUIRAN4GGONGNENGJIDUANQIKEYIDUOZHENGYIXIEQIAN,JISHUSHANGLAIJIANGYEMEIYOUNANDU。DANSHENWEIYIGEJISHUGONGSI,ZAIZIYUANYOUXIANDEQINGKUANGXIAYAOZUOQUSHESHI,WOMENXUANZEMIANXIANG5G。”

超级大满贯  GUDAWEIQIANGDIAOCHENG,ZHEISHISHANGYEDEXUANZE,ERFEIJISHUDEKAOLIANG。“RUGUORIHOUKAN(4G)XINGCHENGZHANGWEIXIAOYING,HUITOUZAIZUOHAISHIYOUZIYUANDE。”TASHUO,“FANGUOLAI,RUGUOCUOGUOLEDIYIBO5G,ZHEISHIYINXIAOSHIDA。”

  ZAITANDAOLIANFAKEZAISHOUJILINGYUDECELVEHEMUBIAOSHI,CHENGUANZHOUBIAOSHI,DIYIJIANSHISHIDAHAO4GDEXIABANCHANG,TIGAOZIYUANDELIYONGXIAOLV,DIERJIANSHIJIUSHIZHANGWO5GZHUANHUANDESHANGJI。TATANYAN,4GSHIDAILIANFAKESHI“DIERMING”,MUQIANGONGSITUIDONG5G SoCGANSHANGDAGUIMOSHANGYONG,BEIHOUDESIWEIJIUSHIRUHEZAI5GSHIDAIBAJULISUODUAN,JINYIBULAJINYU“DIYIMING”DEJULI。


SAOYISAO,ZUIXINZUIREJIADIANXINGYEDONGTAI,QUANWEISHUJU、ZHUANJIAGUANDIAN、XINWENREPINGJINZAIZHANGWO。WEIXINSOUSUO“SHANGHAIJIADIANWANG”/“shjiadian”JIKEGUANZHU,QIDAININDEDIANZANHUOPAIZHUAN!

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来源: 21世纪经济报道 责任编辑:shreen
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